Chion, C.; Cantin, G.; Dionne, S.; Dubeau, B.; Lamontagne, P.; Landry, J.A.; Marceau, D.; Martins, C.C.A.; Ménard, N.; Michaud, R.; Parrott, L. & Turgeon, S. (2013). Spatiotemporal modelling for policy analysis: Application to sustainable management of whale-watching activities. Marine Policy, 38 (2013) : 151–162.
Abstract
Anticipating the impacts of a new policy before implementation on a complex
social–ecological system is a challenging task for managers and
policymakers. This paper reports on the development and use of an
agent-based model (ABM) dedicated to support marine park managers in their
effort to devise policies to sustainably manage whale-watching activities.
The ABM, called the Marine Mammal and Maritime Traffic Simulator (3MTSim),
represents the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine mammals and navigation
activities in and around the Saguenay–St. Lawrence Marine Park in Canada. In
the context of updating the current regulations on whale-watching in the
Marine Park, 3MTSim was run to evaluate the merits of a proposed set of
rules compared to the current regulations. To do so, a set of variables
related to policies’ impacts on the three spheres of sustainable
development, namely the impact on whales (Environment), on whale-watching
companies (Economy), and tourist experience (Society) was analysed. 3MTSim’s
simulations highlighted that the proposed rules are expected to improve the
situation regarding whale conservation and tourist experience with only
marginal impact on the whale- watching industry. In the proposed
regulations, one rule is expected to be very influential on whale- watching
activities. This rule limits to 10 the number of whale-watching boats
allowed to stand within 926 m of any boat in observation mode. Assuming
efficient law enforcement, 3MTSim predicts a significant decrease in overall
boat concentration around whales in the Marine Park, which is one of the
management objectives benefiting both whales and tourists. Interestingly,
3MTSim reveals that this rule could indirectly force some boats to observe
second-choice whales present in higher abundance rather than some more
attractive species scarcer in the region. This highlights the following
manage- ment tradeoffs: Reducing boat exposure for the humpback whale and
endangered blue whale is likely to increase it for the more abundant fin
whale listed as of special concern (Canada’s Species at Risk Act) and minke
whale. This work demonstrates the utility of ABMs to support policy analysis
in the context of sustainable management in a Marine Park. ABMs developed in
close relationship with end-users are unarguably a tool of choice to manage
complex social–ecological systems since they provide insight into phenomena
hard or impossible to measure in the real system. Despite the labour
intensive nature of their implementation, this investment is worth the
effort.